Yeah, what frustrates me when people talk about scaling laws (e.g. Situational Awareness) is that massive growth in the inputs implies linear-ish improvements in the outputs. One can't point to massive growth in compute and assume that it will lead to similar growth in capabilities.
> Refillable planet models the economics of baby bonuses. They estimate that the U.S. government should be willing to pay $290K per baby, which is also sufficient to return to above-replacement fertility. They suggest that better fertility policy research and more targeted interventions could make the overall cost smaller.
When will people get it through their heads fertility can't be solved by economics. I'm shocked to see even libertarians substacks like "bet on it" suggest government intervention to raise fertility despite even not working would make one question their commitment to the idealogy.
> Migration Financing: Filling the Missing Market with Income Sharing Agreements. Immigration is has high costs that prevent people from moving but can dramatically raise incomes. Income share agreements are a natural fit for this since they align the interest of borrowers and lenders. But unfortunately there is no legal support for them today.
Income sharing agreements are already used in tertiary education. They never took off there. I think the legal support thing is a cop out. We need a more comprehensive explanation. I would be surprised the world's extraordinary financial talent never made this thing work anywhere in the world despite the record low interest rates of the 2010s.
"I just need 10x more compute bro, I swear we'll have AGI this time bro. Please bro." - Sam Altman to Bill Gates every 6 months
Yeah, what frustrates me when people talk about scaling laws (e.g. Situational Awareness) is that massive growth in the inputs implies linear-ish improvements in the outputs. One can't point to massive growth in compute and assume that it will lead to similar growth in capabilities.
> Refillable planet models the economics of baby bonuses. They estimate that the U.S. government should be willing to pay $290K per baby, which is also sufficient to return to above-replacement fertility. They suggest that better fertility policy research and more targeted interventions could make the overall cost smaller.
When will people get it through their heads fertility can't be solved by economics. I'm shocked to see even libertarians substacks like "bet on it" suggest government intervention to raise fertility despite even not working would make one question their commitment to the idealogy.
> Migration Financing: Filling the Missing Market with Income Sharing Agreements. Immigration is has high costs that prevent people from moving but can dramatically raise incomes. Income share agreements are a natural fit for this since they align the interest of borrowers and lenders. But unfortunately there is no legal support for them today.
Income sharing agreements are already used in tertiary education. They never took off there. I think the legal support thing is a cop out. We need a more comprehensive explanation. I would be surprised the world's extraordinary financial talent never made this thing work anywhere in the world despite the record low interest rates of the 2010s.